What will the new White House mean for Climate Tech?
Enough time has now passed for the PTSD to abate and to allow for reflection on the potential impact of the Trump presidency on the continued scaling of Climate Tech.
An interesting meme has appeared over the last few days signalling that founders and investors think that the Trump presidency might actually be positive for the sector (quite counter-factual at first pass!).
On the 2150 side, Peter Hirsch our Head of Sustainability and Policy had proactively started working on this scenario in October analysing the various policies and potential impact of a Republican sweep of White House, Senate and House on our portfolio on a line by line basis.
TL;DR highlights
- Our portfolio generally looked safe and we seldom back companies based on policy tail-winds or grant financing
- The DOEs Loan Program Office (LPO) could be at risk impacting expected grants or ongoing applications and potential reallocation of funding towards more extractive technologies
- The IRA will likely cease to exist in name, but given how much money (and jobs) have flowed into Red states, and the advocacy of Republican congressmen to ensure the tax credits are maintained it might continue under a new guise
- EV tax credits could be at risk… but then Elon happened
- Biggest risk will come from tariffs impacting supply chain imports and therefore the unit economics of many solutions, but perhaps also triggering a trade war with current partners, impacting international sales
We actively shared this analysis with our founders. The day after the election I checked in with many of our founders and the resilience and attitude I heard from them impressed me…
The day after the election Tom Steyer and Sec. John Kerry of Galvanize Capital penned a note on their thoughts after the election. They stated:
“Events don’t change secular trends: The first Trump administration did not reverse the clean energy transition…This process of rapid transformation did not only occur during the previous four years, it was also taking hold during the Trump administration, and well before that…We expect a Trump presidency to create opportunities and dislocations in the market…”
That theme has continued to be reiterated. On November 8th Bloomberg published “Trump’s Return Is Set to Revive Investment in Climate Startups.” It stated:
“At the same time, the climate tech pitch has changed. Investors and founders alike no longer talk up sustainability and decarbonization, but rather jobs, manufacturing, onshoring and the need to compete with China. All are bipartisan priorities that can play well with Republicans who will run the White House, Senate and quite possibly the House of Representatives.”
Then came a piece in Reuters on November 13th alongside the kickoff to COP29. It included my view on the impact on Climate Tech
For investors in clean technology and the companies they invest in, the election result means a change of narrative, and a focus on non-climate benefits, says Christian Herndandez Gallardo, co-founder of climate tech investor 2150, which specialises in solutions for making cities greener. “This is something we have been planning for, given the tightness of the polls. None of our founders wants to be seen as climate companies,” he said. “The business case has to be about price parity or better performance.”
On November 14th Forbes published “10 Reasons Why Trump 2.0 Won’t Kill The Green Revolution.” It highlighted the momentum in the space, the fact that many of these technologies can thrive (because they are better, faster, cheaper) even without subsidies and the role that private capital, state funding and tech companies (who need a lot of energy for their exploding data centers) play a funding role.
The other side, of course, is that “Trump promise to repeal Biden climate policies could cost US billions…” as stated by The Guardian on November 14th.
What is a highly likely outcome is that the US will withdraw from global leadership on the planet’s common battle against climate change. The question is whether any other player can step in to fill the void. For me that can only be China or the EU acting as an aligned block (which might be in doubt given the recent rightward shift in elections this past summer).
The reality is that in a moment of great risk to our planetary boundaries, the outcome of the US elections increases the risk, but the momentum, the opportunity and the positive views highlighted above gives me hope.
